Possible scenario
Democrats Flip House
43% Chance
The NRCC’s $1.3 million reserve is treated as a defensive move in a map moving away from Republicans after Cook Political Report shifts and aggressive DCCC targeting. Democrats convert enough Biden- and swing-district seats to make Hakeem Jeffries speaker with a narrow majority.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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