Possible scenario
Hamilton Wins Control
32% Chance
Adam Hamilton converts the Cook shift, former GOP endorsements, and a late polling lead into a narrow Kansas win. With Kansas added to other Democratic gains or holds, Democrats take Senate control despite heavy GOP super PAC spending.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
- Utilities +0.4%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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