Possible scenario
GOP Holds Kansas
34% Chance
Republicans blunt Hamilton’s momentum with a large outside-spending push and consolidate conservative voters who briefly considered crossing over. Kansas returns to its usual partisan baseline, making it much harder for Democrats to capture Senate control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Utilities -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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