Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
38% Chance
France's 2,000-soldier deployment, combined with Gulf Arab air defenses and existing U.S. naval assets, deters Iran from immediately escalating beyond harassment. Shipping continues through the Strait of Hormuz under tighter escort procedures, keeping the crisis contained.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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