Possible scenario
Coalition Buildup Expands
18% Chance
France's deployment becomes the core of a broader Western-Gulf security buildout, with the U.S., U.K., Saudi Arabia and UAE integrating patrols and air defenses. This bolsters deterrence but also raises the risk of direct confrontation with Iranian forces.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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