Possible scenario
Strikes Continue Locally
42% Chance
Russia continues intermittent strikes on Ukrainian cities and logistics nodes, but the Pryluky death toll does not trigger a qualitatively new phase of the war. Kyiv focuses on rescue, documentation of civilian casualties, and appeals for more air defense while markets treat the event as part of the existing conflict baseline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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