Possible scenario
Legal Diplomatic Response
18% Chance
Ukraine channels the Pryluky attack into legal and diplomatic forums, including U.N. briefings and war-crimes documentation. The response increases pressure on Russia but is unlikely to move global markets unless paired with new sanctions or a military escalation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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