Possible scenario
Routine Deterrence Prevails
45% Chance
The most likely path is that NATO treats the Italy drills as a scheduled deterrence exercise and avoids operational surprises. Russia protests rhetorically, but no incident occurs and the market impact remains small because the drills are annual and largely anticipated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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