Possible scenario
Coalition Reopens Corridor
35% Chance
The United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and European naval forces mount a limited operation to restore a protected shipping lane through Bab al-Mandab. This is the most likely path because Saudi exports, Suez traffic, and Western naval credibility are directly at stake, but the coalition tries to avoid a broader war with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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