Possible scenario
Blockade Persists
30% Chance
The Houthis maintain control of the Bab al-Mandab approaches and Mokha Port long enough to disrupt Saudi Red Sea loadings and force more cargo around longer, costlier routes. Riyadh can mitigate through the East-West pipeline and Gulf terminals, but the loss of Red Sea flexibility keeps energy and shipping risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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