Iran Link Emerges

A less likely but high-impact path is that U.K. security services uncover evidence of Iranian state or proxy involvement, consistent with the wider U.S.-Iran confrontation and the earlier use of British bases for U.S. strikes. This would turn a local counter-terror case into a diplomatic and military escalation risk, with modest but visible safe-haven and oil-market effects.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.