Contained Domestic Plot

The most likely outcome is that British counter-terror police frame the incident as a disrupted domestic plot against RAF Fairford, without proving direction from a foreign state. The arrests, van movements, and explosives inquiry justify elevated security, but the absence of an actual detonation or casualties limits wider geopolitical fallout.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.