Gulf Risk Returns

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The earlier Iran-related disruption to Gulf oil transfers remains an important tail risk. If fresh security incidents occur, the market quickly rebuilds a geopolitical risk premium even though the latest weekly move was driven largely by demand worries.

What it moves

Energy+2.3%
Consumer Services−1.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Oil prices▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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