Possible scenario
Supplier Pushback
20% Chance
Gas suppliers and trading houses argue that the cap may discourage cargoes or force losses on existing contracts. The risk is not a 2022-style crisis, but the near-term market reaction would be negative for regulated utilities and energy users.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.6%
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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