Possible scenario
Diluted Safeguards
23% Chance
The Commission and Italian authorities preserve the political headline of a price cap but add market-based escape clauses. This reduces the chance of supply disruption but also limits the cap's practical effect on bills.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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