Possible scenario
Sabotage Without Fatalities
28% Chance
Russia-linked networks shift from assassination attempts to intimidation, arson, and logistics disruption around defense facilities. This outcome avoids a market-wide crisis but creates operational risk for European arms makers and ammunition suppliers.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.2%
- Business Services +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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