Plots Foiled, Security Tightened

European counterintelligence services disrupt most of the active assassination cells before an executive is harmed. The most likely near-term path is tighter protection, more arrests, and public attribution rather than a successful killing, given the heightened alert since the Rheinmetall plot and Danish sabotage cases.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.