Possible scenario
Chip Bloc Hardens
18% Chance
The deal becomes a visible pillar of the U.S.-Japan semiconductor security architecture, following years of export controls, Rapidus funding and AI-chip coordination. The market impact depends on whether Beijing retaliates or whether allied governments coordinate smoothly.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- GFS+4.6%
- MU-1.6%
- NVDA-1.2%
- INTC+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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