Possible scenario
Deal Temporarily Stalled
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a procedural freeze rather than a final ruling on whether Kalshi contracts are gambling. The tribal leadership split gives the rival faction a plausible governance hook to delay implementation even if the broader federal-state legal question remains unresolved.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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