Possible scenario
Limited Cooperation Works
45% Chance
Russia's material aid remains focused on ammunition, communications gear, intelligence sharing, and limited training through Taliban security channels. Kabul uses the support to improve raids against ISIS-K without triggering major international recognition or a wider regional military role.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.