Possible scenario
ISIS-K Retaliates
20% Chance
ISIS-K portrays the Russian pledge as proof that the Taliban is aligned with Moscow and uses it for recruitment and propaganda. The group attempts spectacular attacks in Afghanistan, Russia, or Central Asia to punish both governments and regain momentum.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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