Possible scenario
Narrow Federal Cleanup
45% Chance
The ban remains focused on federal systems and third-party tools that embed DeepSeek models or weights. Agencies and contractors conduct software inventories, but the policy does not immediately expand into a broader private-sector prohibition.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Business Services -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- PLTR+1.7%
- MSFT+0.7%
- ORCL+0.6%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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