Possible scenario
Broader AI Restrictions
25% Chance
US officials use the federal-system ban as a foundation for wider restrictions on DeepSeek-derived models in critical infrastructure, defense suppliers, and regulated data environments. The outcome is still sector-specific, but it increases regulatory risk for AI software and cloud providers that support open-source model deployment.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT+1.4%
- +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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