Possible scenario
Product Scramble Deepens
25% Chance
China's halt combines with Russia's diesel-export restrictions to create a broader scramble for refined products. The market shifts from a crude rally to a product-availability shock, with aviation, logistics and heavy industry bearing the immediate cost.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.4%
- Energy +2.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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