Possible scenario
Policy Relief Arrives
25% Chance
Governments respond quickly to the price spike because fuel availability is becoming a political and inflation issue. Either Beijing reopens some export flows or consuming countries coordinate stock releases and refinery optimization, limiting further upside in crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.7%
- Energy -1.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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