Possible scenario
Policy Becomes Entrenched
30% Chance
The State Department defends the redirection as consistent with the administration's America First overhaul and broadens ideological grant screening across democracy, human-rights, and civil-society programs. Courts and Congress do not immediately stop the move, allowing a durable shift in U.S. soft-power funding.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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