Poll Misses Direction

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The one-point Mealer lead proves misleading because turnout composition or late voter movement differs sharply from the DCCC poll’s model. Either party could win more comfortably than expected, reducing the chance of a recount.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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