Possible scenario
Tit-for-Tat Continues
45% Chance
Putin's rejection makes a formal swap of Black Sea shipping restraint for refinery restraint unlikely in the near term. Both Moscow and Kyiv retain incentives to pressure each other's energy infrastructure while avoiding steps that would trigger a wider diplomatic backlash.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.