Possible scenario
Informal Restraint Emerges
25% Chance
Despite Putin's public dismissal, both sides may still reduce attacks that threaten domestic fuel supply or winter energy resilience. Such restraint would likely remain deniable and tactical rather than a signed ceasefire.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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