Possible scenario
Story Stays Contained
45% Chance
The allegation becomes a campaign-trail issue but does not produce immediate legal jeopardy for Roger Marshall. Senate Leadership Fund and Kansas Republicans frame the story as recycled opposition research tied to the final month of the 2026 race.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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