Possible scenario
Alvarado Rebounds Late
30% Chance
Alvarado improves his standing by nationalizing the race and tying Dembo more closely to the Democratic brand in a Trump+15 district. Republican outside groups would likely increase spending if they view the seat as salvageable.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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