Geopolitics Overrides Ballot

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Iran-war risk remains the main tail risk despite the Democratic sweep. A new Gulf incident or a clear de-escalation signal can quickly dominate the election narrative and move oil, volatility, and cyclical equities.

What it moves

Energy+0.8%
Industrials−0.6%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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