Possible scenario
Sanctions Hedge Accelerates
20% Chance
Some emerging-market governments and state-linked institutions treat RMB collateral eligibility as a way to reduce exposure to dollar-clearing sanctions. This does not replace the dollar system, but it gives China a practical channel to expand RMB use in trade finance, repo, and bilateral lending.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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