Possible scenario
Gradual Collateral Adoption
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is a cautious, infrastructure-led expansion of RMB bond collateral use rather than an immediate global shift. Hong Kong, Euroclear-linked channels, and selected Asian banks become the first venues for limited eligibility, with haircuts and liquidity safeguards.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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