Possible scenario
Retaliatory Escalation
20%
−1.8%
Riyadh concludes that continued restraint would invite more attacks and authorizes limited retaliation against Houthi and Iraqi militia infrastructure. The escalation raises the risk of further strikes on Saudi energy assets and produces a sharper one-to-two-day market reaction.
What it moves
- Energy+3.7%
- Industrials+3.0%
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
- Market volatility
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