Defensive Buildup

27%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Riyadh responds by accelerating air-defense deployments around Aramco facilities, airports, desalination plants, and Red Sea logistics routes. Washington increases intelligence-sharing and regional patrols while avoiding strikes on Houthi or Iraqi militia targets.

What it moves

Industrials+1.6%
Energy+1.4%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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