Possible scenario
Deportations Proceed
40% Chance
Spain accelerates asylum screening in Ceuta and begins deportations for Moroccan nationals whose claims are rejected. Rabat cooperates quietly because the cases involve its own citizens and Madrid frames the process as legally compliant after the earlier court ruling.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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