Possible scenario
US Limits Support
15% Chance
Domestic political backlash forces the administration to clarify or scale back refueling support. The move reduces near-term escalation risk but exposes a policy reversal from the prior rejection of Saudi strike assistance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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