Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Strikes
45% Chance
The most likely path is a limited Saudi air campaign enabled by US refueling, with Washington framing the support as defensive and time-bounded. The Houthis respond rhetorically or with small drone launches, but the May 2025 ship-attack truce largely survives.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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