Possible scenario
Trading Loss Disputes
20% Chance
The central uncertainty shifts from cyber containment to who bears losses from unauthorized trades. Brokerages, exchanges, clients and insurers dispute whether executions should stand, creating short-term pressure on Japanese market infrastructure and online brokerage shares.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.7%
- Technology -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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