Scenario description
Assume the Pakistan-Afghanistan cross-border military confrontation materially de-escalates during the observation window: no further Pakistani strikes inside Afghanistan and no sustained Durand Line clashes are reported as continuing, and credible reporting or official statements indicate a ceasefire, cessation of hostilities, pullback, reopening or normalization of affected border crossings, or restoration of routine border security conditions. This scenario does not assume a comprehensive political settlement of underlying militancy disputes; it concerns the operational cessation of cross-border military activity affecting border risk, logistics, insurance, and Afghanistan-linked humanitarian or commercial flows.