Possible scenario
Whatley Late Comeback
16% Chance
Michael Whatley turns the race around by nationalizing the contest around Donald Trump, immigration, inflation, and Senate control. Cooper's early lead erodes as Republican turnout operations and partisan alignment overwhelm his personal popularity.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Healthcare -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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