From todayNetanyahu to Brief Gadi Eisenkot on National Security After Conflict Over Iran Attack Plans

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  38%

  +0.1%

  Managed Security Handover

  Netanyahu uses the briefing to preserve basic national-security continuity while Eisenkot tries to assemble an emergency government. The most likely near-term outcome is a controlled process in which Iran planning remains under review rather than becoming an immediate operational order.

  Consumer Services +0.3% · Energy −0.2% · Industrials −0.1%

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  27%

  +0.2%

  Eisenkot Forms Cabinet

  Eisenkot converts the briefing into a political bridge, gaining enough confidence from centrist and security-focused lawmakers to form an emergency government. The new cabinet narrows Israel’s Iran objectives and ties any overt strike more closely to Washington.

  Consumer Services +0.4% · Finance +0.4% · Energy −0.4%

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  23%

  −0.8%

  Strike Push Intensifies

  Netanyahu uses the security briefing to argue that Iran’s nuclear progress requires renewed military action, keeping pressure on Eisenkot and the IDF command. This path is less likely than managed coordination but would carry the largest short-term market impact because investors would reprice oil-supply and regional-war risk.

  Energy +1.8% · Consumer Services −1.7% · Industrials +1.3%

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  12%

  −0.2%

  Coalition Process Breaks

  The briefing fails to create trust, and the dispute over who controls Iran policy deepens the governing crisis. This outcome would not necessarily mean an immediate strike, but it would leave Israel with a weaker decision-making structure at a sensitive security moment.

  Finance −0.4% · Consumer Services −0.2% · Energy +0.2%