Possible scenario
Prolonged LNG Outage
30% Chance
Damage from Iranian attacks keeps part of Qatar's gas processing and export chain offline longer than initial estimates. The market prices tighter global LNG supply, higher replacement-cargo costs, and rising fiscal strain on Qatar.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Utilities -1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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