Possible scenario
Hormuz Shipping Escalation
25% Chance
Iran continues targeting energy shipping, forcing the United States, Qatar, the UAE, and other partners to expand naval escorts. The key uncertainty is whether deterrence stabilizes traffic or the attacks evolve into a wider Gulf crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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