Limited Hostile Incident

A lower-probability but material risk is that Iran-aligned forces test U.S. resolve with a drone or missile incident near a Navy group or critical logistics route. The base case within this branch is a contained interception rather than a damaging strike, but the proximity to Diego Garcia would still move energy and risk markets.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.