Possible scenario
Expanded Maritime Security
28% Chance
The activation becomes one piece of a wider U.S.-led maritime security posture across the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and approaches to Diego Garcia. This would be a larger but still controlled response to Iranian missile advances and the continuing Houthi threat to sea lanes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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