Possible scenario
Selloff Extends
38% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a further decline in Hong Kong equities as investors digest higher U.S. yields, tighter global financial conditions, and recent China tax scrutiny of insurers and banks. The PBOC's liquidity support limits panic, but does not immediately restore risk appetite.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Finance -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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