Possible scenario
Rates Shock Deepens
20% Chance
The Hong Kong decline becomes part of a broader global duration and risk-asset repricing after the Fed hike and the 10-year Treasury yield move above 5%. China policy support is outweighed in the near term by a stronger dollar and tighter financial conditions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.3%
- Technology -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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