Possible scenario
Tax Survives Budget
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the 31.4% tax remains in the finance bill after the narrow Assembly vote, because the measure has already passed committee and received floor approval. Implementation details may still change as the government reconciles the budget text with the Senate.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- CRCL-2.8%
- -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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